Can Free-to-Play Get the Byrna Totem?
Doing the math on the new event!

How Much is the Totem Fragment in the 10th Anniversary Event?

The Totem Sphere can be had for 70 Sapphire Medallions; Note that this is just a base element Totem Sphere! (Fire, Water, or Earth ONLY)
How Many Sapphire Medallions Can a Free to Play Player Get?

In the Galahad event (and Fluffy, Electra, Tidus, Asherona, etc). free players can expect to get between 38 and 54 Sapphire Medallions TOTAL; This is taken from all available sources (gifts, Altar of Fate, etc). This is with 0 Purchases, and 0 Emeralds Spent!
Thanks to hwdaily.win for these Relic Optimizers!
How Do We Get the Remaining Sapphire Medallions?
Daily Login Rewards:

With the +1 Sapphire Medallion,
we now need15-31 Medallions.
Altar of Fate

Altar of Fate Assumptions:

We know from past events that the Altar of Fate rewards Sapphire Medallions at a rate of roughly 12.6%. From hwdaily:
12.6% chance per pull
10% base chance and bad luck protection every 15 pulls, also on the first three pulls, and the first six ones after that)

Assuming 12.6% drop rate for Sapphire Medallions, and Rank 2 Grail of Generosity,
Altar of Fate will be 2500 Valor Coins per pull.
How Many Valor Coins to Get 15 Sapphire Medallions ≈ 297,600 total Valor Coins
How Many Valor Coins to get 31 Sapphire Medallions ≈ 615,100 total Valor Coins
So we will need an extra
298k to 615k Valor Coins
dumped into the Altar of Fate
to get the last 15-31 Medallions.
Where Do We Get 298k to 615k Valor Coins?
Mysterious Island
Total Possible: 230,000 Valor Coins

At the cost of ~46 Moves, we can collect 230,000 Valor Coins
8 Moves for 50k
20 More Moves for 80k
18 more Moves for the last 100k
Cake Hunt Event Tasks
The Cake Hunt is a THIRD event during the Happy Birthday/Byrna Event!
You can get a TOTAL POSSIBLE VALOR COINS of 329,585 from this event
Task | Valor Coins |
(daily) Find Easter eggs and take part in the minigame | 10,500 |
Score at least 1,000,000,000 total ranking points in battle with the Archdemon during the event | TBD: we don't know how hard this is yet 500mil is 52500 🤷♂️ MAX: 102,500 |
(daily) Score at least 100,000,000 ranking points in battle with the Archdemon today | TBD: we don't know how hard this is yet 50mil is 10k or 70k total 🤷♂️ MAX: 196,000 |
Spend 16,000 Energy (2286 per day) | 8200 |
Open 35 chests in Outlands | 4300 |
Log in 7 times during a special event | 17500 |
Total Possible: | 339,000 |
Secret of Celebration - Find the DAILY Easter Egg/MiniGame
Total 10500 - This is absolutely free to complete every day

The Archdemon's Challenge -
Score Total Ranking Points vs Archdemon

100mil - 2500 Valor Coins
200mil - 5000 Valor Coins
300mil - 10,000 Valor Coins
400mil - 15,000 Valor Coins
500mil - 20,000 Valor Coins
1bil - 50,000 Valor Coins
The Hour of War
Score Ranking Points PER DAY

a. 5,000,000 points in battle with the Archdemon - 500 Valor Coins
b. 10,000,000 points - 1000 Valor Coins
c. 15,000,000 points - 1500 Valor Coins
d. 25,000,000 points - 2500 Valor Coins
e. 50,000,000 points - 5000 Valor Coins
f. 75,000,000 points - 7500 Valor Coins
g. 100,000,000 points - 10,000 Valor Coins
Energy Surge
Total 8200 - 16,000 Energy across 7 days is roughly 2300 energy per day; very easy to do as free to play if you have a few energy bottles to spend!

Spend 750 Energy - 400 Valor Coins
Spend 1,500 Energy - 650 Valor Coins
Spend 3,000 Energy - 750 Valor Coins
Spend 6,000 Energy - 1000 Valor Coins
Spend 9,000 Energy - 1300 Valor Coins
Spend 12,000 Energy - 1600 Valor Coins
Spend 16,000 Energy - 2500 Valor Coins
Beyond the Edge
Total: 4300 You can open 3 Outland Chests for free daily, 3x7=21. The remaining 14 will cost you 90 Emeralds per or 1260 Emeralds

Open 3 chests in Outlands - 350 Valor Coins
Open 7 chests in Outlands - 350 Valor Coins
Open 12 chests in Outlands - 550 Valor Coins
Open 17 chests in Outlands - 650 Valor Coins
Open 25 chests in Outlands - 800 Valor Coins
Open 35 chests in Outlands - 1600 Valor Coins
First Move
Total: 17,500 Logging in everyday is 100% free!

Log in 1 time - 2500 Valor Coins
Log in 2 times - 2500 Valor Coins
Log in 3 times - 2500 Valor Coins
Log in 4 times - 2500 Valor Coins
Log in 5 times - 2500 Valor Coins
Log in 6 times - 2500 Valor Coins
Log in 7 times - 2500 Valor Coins






It is really luck based. Luckily I got 90 medallions on my gold league account and 35 on my old account, where I also had tons of coins. I did one run with 600k and then another with 200k but had called Byrna early in the week for skills, so I had in excess of 800k coins and got less than 40 medallions, that is probably at the bottom of the luck distribution.
And that is what i really dislike and why the old model (back when you could buy the soul stones in the shop). You can do everything right and fail a task anyways.
What is also important is the part below the screenshot that Charlie posted, which makes things harder to get a totem. "You cannot spend your medallions all at once
You will have at most 27 - 41 at a time.
Spending some will get you the rest."
This means that you do not have 38-54 at any given time.
Isn't 2nd level Grail 2600 per pull, not 2500?